Less than 24 months ago, Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco 49ers were just a play away from winning the Super Bowl. Less than 12 months ago, Kaepernick and the 49ers were just a play away from going to their second Super Bowl in a row.
After unprecedented team success and impressive play from the inexperienced quarterback, the 49ers decided to sign Kaepernick to a long-term contract potentially worth $126 million.
Even though Kaepernick's contract had get-out clauses for the team if it decided to move on from him after any given season, it was unfathomable to think that get-out clause would be used after just one season. However, now it appears to be a real possibility, looking more and more probable every week.
With the 49ers out of playoff contention and coach Jim Harbaugh set to depart for pastures new (also growing more and more probable), the franchise will be dropped into unfamiliar levels of uncertainty this offseason. Because Kaepernick hasn't played well this season, that uncertainty could affect him in spite of his status as the team's franchise quarterback.
The new head coach in San Francisco next season will need to ask himself a simple question: What changed?
Kaepernick's raw numbers aren't significantly different this year opposed to last. In fact, it could be argued that this year's numbers are more impressive. Kaepernick is attempting more passes, completing passes at a higher rate and is on track to throw for more yards in 16 games.
He would need five touchdowns over his final two games to match his passing touchdowns from last season, while he already has more interceptions this year than for all of last season.
Maybe most significantly, Kaepernick has taken an incredible 49 sacks while not rushing for a single touchdown. In 2013, he finished the season with 39 sacks and had four rushing touchdowns.
Kaepernick's raw numbers paint a murky picture. They don't decisively say that he was more productive in one season over the next. Instead, they show some improvement in certain areas and some decline in others.
In terms of his actual performance and his value moving forward, they tell us nothing of value.Durin the 2013 season, Kaepernick played a completely different role to the one he played in 2014. Yes, he was still the starting quarterback of offensive coordinator Greg Roman's offense, but Roman's offense is now completely different. In previous seasons, the 49ers had built their offense on the running game and an exceptional offensive line.
2014 was the first year when they attempted to shift most of the responsibility within the offense onto Kaepernick's shoulders. In 2014, Roman had been given a plethora of new receiving weapons to add to Kaepernick's arsenal.
Brandon Lloyd, Steve Johnson, Bruce Ellington and an available Michael Crabtree completely altered the appearance of the 49ers' wide receiver depth chart entering this season.
Lloyd returned from a one-year absence after being released by the New England Patriots before the 2013 season. Johnson was acquired in a relatively cheap trade after the Buffalo Bills drafted Sammy Watkins. Ellington was a fourth-round draft pick, while Crabtree wasn't sidelined by a torn Achilles tendon like he had been before 2013.
With these new weapons and the lingering absences of starting right guard Alex Boone—holding out for a new contract—and starting right tackle Anthony Davis—injured—it was no surprise that the 49ers wanted Kaepernick to carry more of the offense.
Instead of relying on the ageless Frank Gore and the youthful energy of Carlos Hyde in the running game, the 49ers turned to a quarterback who was unproven outside of the offense's previous construction.
When Kaepernick was at his best, the 49ers established the run with Gore. Kaepernick played a part in establishing the run as he was a threat to carry the ball himself, but Gore typically drew most of the offense's attention behind an exceptional offensive line.
As the versatile rushing attack disrupted the offense's coverages and put Kaepernick in space to throw the ball, the young starter wasn't being asked to mitigate pressure in tight pockets while making coverage reads down the field.
Instead, Kaepernick could primarily make first-read throws or rely on play action to create obvious space for himself. Once the 49ers moved away from that identity, Kaepernick was asked to do things that his skill set simply isn't built to do.
As early as his very first start against the Chicago Bears two years ago, Kaepernick was making exceptional throws as part of the previous offensive philosophy.
Source http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2303974-is-it-officially-time-for-the-49ers-to-give-up-on-colin-kaepernick
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