Max Scherzer spent the 2014 season doing more than just playing baseball. During the course of the year, from spring training through the playoffs, the free-agent right-hander also was conducting a rather interesting—and really risky—experiment of sorts.
Coming off a career year in which he won the American League Cy Young in 2013, Scherzer famously rejected a six-year, $144 million extension from the Detroit Tigers last March.
At the time, that amount would have made him the seventh-highest-paid pitcher in history, which is why the decision could have been described as anything from questionable to silly to selfish—and, yes, even brilliant.
Sure, Scherzer could have signed on the dotted line right then and there and secured more money than just about any human being has a right even to dream of earning in a lifetime.
Instead, Scherzer gambled on himself, figuring that with another strong season, he would enter free agency and his market would explode from a single team (the Tigers) to all 30 clubs in Major League Baseball. So, too, would the money.
"Back then only we could have signed him," Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski said, via Joel Sherman of the New York Post, about last March's offer. "Now, 29 other teams could sign him. As you see, the odds don’t improve."
That's how Scherzer and superagent Scott Boras, who almost always gets top dollar for his elite clients, decided to let this experiment play out.
After a 2014 season that was nearly as great as his award-winning 2013—his ERA (2.90 in '13 vs. 3.15 in '14) and FIP (2.74 vs. 2.85) were more or less the same—Scherzer has set himself up rather nicely this offseason.While the 30-year-old right-hander unquestionably is going to get a massive, multiyear, nine-figure contract, there are reasons he and Boras might be sweating things out at least a little bit, even as the temperatures dip this winter.
For one thing, a number of teams already have spent big merely a month into the offseason.
The Tigers, with whom Scherzer played the past five years, chose to re-sign designated hitter Victor Martinez for $68 million.The Boston Red Sox, who have a major need for starting pitching, handed out large contracts to position players Hanley Ramirez ($88 million over four years) and Pablo Sandoval ($95 million for five).
The Toronto Blue Jays, another team that has a hole at the top of its rotation, splurged on catcher Russell Martin, who netted $82 million, the second-largest deal in franchise history.The Arizona Diamondbacks, yet another club searching for arms, signed outfielder Yasmany Tomas—perhaps the next Cuban phenom—to a six-year, $68.5 million pact.
The Seattle Mariners just agreed to pay DH Nelson Cruz $57 million to help them end their 13-year playoff drought after inking third baseman Kyle Seager to a $100 million extension.
Put simply, more than a few teams that could have splurged on Scherzer—and a lot of the money that could have been forked over to him—now cannot.The second reason Scherzer's experiment might not necessarily pay off quite as much as he and Boras had hoped? The pitching market is absolutely flooded at the moment.
There are all kinds of free-agent arms, including high-end names Jon Lester and James Shields, as well as others like Francisco Liriano, Ervin Santana and Brandon McCarthy.
And on the trade front, there are even more highly regarded options. Among them? The Philadelphia Phillies' Cole Hamels, the Oakland Athletics' Jeff Samardzija, the Washington Nationals' Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister, the Cincinnati Reds' Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos and the San Diego Padres' Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy.
With so many pitchers readily and apparently available, it's at least possible that teams will look elsewhere at less expensive—but still very good—options rather than give in to Scherzer and Boras' demands.
In such a scenario, they might not be able to do much better than the $144 million.
"It's not the best time to be looking for a big deal," one unnamed GM told Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription required).On the other hand, two things remain very much in Scherzer's favor.
First, he is considered arguably the best free agent on the market this offseason along with Lester. Historically speaking, that player almost always gets paid as much as—if not more than—expected.
And because he is a free agent, Scherzer's services can be acquired strictly for cash. Granted, the signing team also will lose a draft pick because he rejected the qualifying offer, but the club won't have to surrender talent from the major or minor leagues to get him, unlike a team would for each of the trade candidates above.
Second, there has been almost no action involving pitchers so far.
The most notable free-agent pitcher to sign so far? That'd be A.J. Burnett, who turns 38 in January and got $8.5 million from the Pittsburgh Pirates after posting a 4.59 ERA for the Phillies and then considering retirement.
In terms of trades, the biggest pitchers to change jerseys are Shelby Miller, who went from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Atlanta Braves, and Jeremy Hellickson, who went from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Diamondbacks. (Is your spine also not tingling?)
Source: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2288335-france-should-grant-legend-thierry-henry-a-farewell-appearanceSo
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